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Peak season 2026

What unfilled shifts could cost you this peak

Enter your numbers to estimate what it costs you in Q4 when your fill rate drops by 1 percentage point: lost revenue, missed commitments, and overtime.

Base pay for your hourly shift workers, before overtime.

Estimated Q4 impact

$XXX,XXX

for every 1-point drop in your fill rate this quarter

This is a conservative estimate. It doesn't include customers lost after repeated misses or turnover from overtime burnout.

  • Lost revenue $XX,XXX Revenue from work that never gets done.
  • Missed-commitment costs $XX,XXX Penalties, chargebacks, redelivery, and credits when work for your customers is late or missed.
  • Overtime premium $XX,XXX The extra pay for existing staff who cover the gap.

Fill in all four fields and select Calculate my Q4 risk to see your numbers.

How this is calculated ShowHide

The estimate answers one question: if your Q4 fill rate drops by 1 percentage point, say from 97% to 96%, what does that cost?

We start from your revenue and industry to estimate how many shift hours you'll run in Q4, then work out how many a 1-point drop leaves unfilled. Some of those hours are picked up by existing staff on overtime, and the rest go uncovered. Of the uncovered work, some is done late and some is lost for good. Each unfilled hour is counted once, under the cost it actually creates: overtime hours cost the overtime premium, uncovered hours cost missed commitments, and lost work also costs the revenue it would have brought in. Your wage sets the overtime premium.

Key assumptions

  • A 1-point drop in fill rate. The estimate scales in a straight line: a 3-point drop costs about three times as much.
  • 47% covered by overtime. SHRM/Kronos Employee Absences Survey (2014), the share of absences covered by other employees working extra hours.
  • Lost revenue is top line. It's the revenue the lost work would have brought in, before the wages and running costs you don't spend on it.
  • Overtime at time-and-a-half. Federal FLSA standard for hours over 40 a week.
  • Q4 is one quarter of annual revenue before the peak adjustment.

Sources

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employer Costs for Employee Compensation
  • GXO Logistics, FY2025 Form 10-K
  • CBRE hotel labor cost benchmarks
  • U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Economic Census
  • Walmart On-Time In-Full (OTIF) supplier compliance program, 98% target and 3% fine (since September 2020)
  • SHRM and Kronos, Total Financial Impact of Employee Absences Survey (2014)

What this leaves out

To stay conservative, the estimate doesn't count customers lost after repeated misses, supervisor time spent filling gaps, burnout and turnover from sustained overtime, or the extra strain of missing shifts when you're already at full capacity. Your real cost is likely higher.

This is an estimate based on industry benchmarks. Your actual cost depends on your operations.

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